How Advertising Distorts the Need for Saving

The “branding” of America is the most insidious part of our culture.  Now, entire personalities are subsumed into brands.  Lebron James is a brand.  Jerry Bruckheimer is a brand.  Every supermodel and pop singer is a brand.  There are few places you can escape logos such as the Nike “swoosh” or Mickey Mouse ears.  The brands scream only two messages at us: “You’re not good enough,” and “Spend.”

Advertising is a huge reason why people don’t invest.  Advertising is a shell game that sets us up for the quick thrill, eternal youth in a bottle, sex at the beach by drinking a brand of beer and buying a lot of things that do absolutely nothing for us.  Instead of saving the money we would be spending on some gadget, vehicle, or wardrobe, we could be could be investing in our children and ourselves.  Advertising is the deep end of the ocean.  When we succumb and sink into it, there’s no bottom to the spending. 

Turn Off the TV and Start Saving

The more TV a person watches, the more he/she spends (based on the advertising they absorb).  Actual research by Dr. Juliet Schor from Harvard found that for every extra hour spend watching TV, the subjects spent an additional $208 per week.  On average they spent an additional $2,300 a year in unplanned expenditures. 

TV and Advertising distorts the view we have of ourselves.  Advertising is designed to make you feel uncomfortable about yourself, your possessions, and everything around you.  If you are perfectly secure and comfortable, then you won’t feel the need to buy the thousands of products being marketed. 

Be Careful When Browsing the Internet

Personally, I use the Firefox browser with an Add-on called Adblock.  What this does is prevent website ads from appearing when I visit sites online, thereby removing my temptation to buy some gadget I won’t have use for after two days of purchase. 

The Real Truth about Saving and Spending

If you take away nothing else from this on cutting out the influence advertising has on your life, know this: If you spend less, you’ll quickly save more.  I know this sounds like a big “duh,” but there is a powerful spiritual component to savings as well.  Being in deep debt is a form of slavery-to your creditors.  If you are working just to pay bills, you are shackled to what you owe.  It’s a lonely impoverishing situation. 

Mother Teresa noticed it when she visited the United States:

“There are many kinds of poverty. Even in countries where the economic situation seems to be a good one, there are expressions of poverty hidden in a deep place, such as the tremendous loneliness of people who have been abandoned and who are suffering.”  

Overcoming Investing Hurdles

I’m sure you have many reasons for not starting an investment program.

• No money.
• No knowledge.
• No time.
• No broker.
• Too old.
• Too young.

I’m sure you think these are legitimate reasons.  They are not. 

There are no good excuses for not investing.  I don’t care how young or not so young you are.  How rich or not so rich you are.  How much you know or don’t know.  It has never been easier or cheaper to invest. 

If you have just $50, there are literally hundreds of investment opportunities awaiting for you, including with our own firm, CAM Trading.  If your employer offers a 401(k) plan, you can invest as little as 1% of your salary.  That means if you make $400 a week, you can invest as little as $4.00. 

Four bucks.

And you don’t need a broker to invest.  You can buy some of the best companies in the world without a broker and for little or no fees.  Nor do you need a broker to buy some of the best mutual funds in the business. 

In short, there are no excuses for not investing.  So, start now and get in the habit of it, you’ll appreciate the results in the future!

How the Rich Got Rich and Stayed Rich

I’ve been reading a lot of books lately on the consumption lifestyles of the ‘average’ wealthy individual.  No, these are not the stereotypical 'Hip-Hop’ glamour image you see on MTV – there are no oversized gold clocks hanging to their belt lines.  These are folks you’ll likely find shopping at Walmart for the best deals around!  They’ve amassed a sizeable portfolio of businesses, stocks and other investments to get to where they are.  More importantly, they were patient and thought long term.

Here are some of the most common traits found among them.

1. They stayed married an average of thirty-two years.  Divorce is really expensive.  Just ask Donald Trump, or more recently, Tiger Woods!  Donald Trump’s parents (his source of initial wealth) stayed married all their lives.
2. They held on to the same job for a long time.  Job-hoppers have trouble building wealth.  You’ve heard sensational news before of people who worked for UPS (or some other job) for all their lives then suddenly bequeath millions to charity upon their death.  It’s no coincidence that they got so rich when compounding is at work. 
3. They have invested over their working careers: an average of thirty years!
4. They had no investment experience when they started, 85% of the millionaires surveyed knew nothing, but they were eager, lifelong learners and learned as they went along.
5. They considered themselves “frugal.”  Some 80% saved by not spending.  And, those BMWs you see everywhere?  Don’t let them fool you.  98% of buyers of luxury cars are not rich.  The auto makers know this, that’s why they market their brands in rap videos for all the wannabes who are watching.
6. They held investments for more than five years.  Some even longer than ten years. 
7. They used their parents as models for saving and investing.  Of course, when you get older and realize that your parents are not the money role models you can or should follow, then I advise you to hit the local library and find books on the subject matter. 

For a fascinating look into the true lifestyles of real millionaires, turn off MTV and grab a copy of this book: “Stop Acting Rich” by Thomas J. Stanley

Why You Should Avoid Speculating in Futures, Options, and Speculative Stocks

It’s happened to me.  It will happen to you.

Your investment program is going along quite nicely.  You’ve made some nice gains on stable blue chip company stocks.  But it has gotten boring and it feels like something is missing.  You hear about people making a killing on speculative stocks.  Maybe even heard it on CNBC or some other “trusted” financial channel how some trader managed to score big on some futures trade.  You don’t want to wait 25 years to get rich.  You want BIG profits now!  So you create room in your portfolio by venturing into the options and futures markets.  You buy gold because, hey why not?  Everyone is doing it and it can only go higher from here! 

In short, you stray from your investment approach, to roll dice. 

Big mistake. 

Making money consistently in the futures and options markets is difficult because you have to be right about the investment and the timing.  Buying stocks is an easier way to make a buck.  As long as you’re right on the stock, your timing need not be perfect.  You can wait until your reasons for buying the stock pan out.  When you buy options and futures contracts, the clock starts ticking immediately.  You can’t afford to be patient, hoping your investment thesis comes to fruition.  With options, you have at most nine months for your idea to develop.  That’s not a long time.  Most options expire worthless.  You shouldn’t think yours will be any different. 

Buying initial public offerings (IPOs) usually is another losing game for individual investors.  The problem with buying IPOs is that the best IPOs are not available to individual investors.  All those Internet IPOs you read about that went from $10 to $60 were never available at the $10 price for individual investors like you and me.  Only the best customers of the of the investment firms taking the company public get a piece of the best IPOs.  Oh sure, you can buy the stock after it goes public and has already jumped 300%.  That’s a bad idea, since many IPOs return to their initial offering price over time.  And if you are ever approached by a broker who wants to sell you shares in the next “hot” IPO, run for the hills.  Any IPO in which that’s offered to you and me is just junk that none of the big guys want.  We consider IPOs to be in the “Speculative Stocks” category since most of them have earnings that are hard, if not impossible, to determine.  

10 Things to Avoid in a Company Plan

Before this gets too winded, I’ll get right to the point.  There’s a lot to cover in this rainy day in Maryland.

1.  Don’t put all of your clothes in one suitcase!  You’ve heard of the same analogy with eggs being in one basket, but honestly, no one harvests eggs anymore and if they do, they usually don’t put it in a basket.  When you travel, you wouldn’t bring ALL of your clothes, some women may not agree but, that just doesn’t make sense. The same principle applies here.  Never invest all of your money in one stock (especially company stock), mutual fund, bond, or guaranteed investment account (avoid at all costs – this is where scammers thrive).

2.  Diversify simply.  All you really need is a growth stock fund, an international fund, and an aggressive fund (sector funds like technology, healthcare).  Keep it simple, but remember nothing is safe in a downturn (except cash or money market funds – although, inflation is its greatest enemy).

3.  Forget about bonds.  In most cases, bonds make sense.  They do not in a tax deferred plan.  You want to grow your principal, not your income.  And putting money in bonds isn’t the safer alternative, either.  Let the free company matching go toward the purchase of other funds that benefit from dollar-cost-averaging. 

4.  Stay put.  Most plan managers allow you the ability to switch from fund to fund through phone or their website.  Take a close look at your allocations once a year in January and plan to re-allocate (usually at no cost).

5.  Look at fees.  All similar index funds have one important difference: their fees or expense ratios.  The lower the expense ratio, the higher the return in index funds.  It’s pretty basic, but they’re all the same.  If they’re not – there’s a mathematical computation error going on within the fund management, and you should avoid those funds, too. 

6.  Forget historical returns.  The funds within your plan are chosen by your HR department and they’re typically clueless about fund performance and how it all works.  So, they end up finding the high-flyers of recent past and they expect these funds to perform just the same.  However, mutual funds depend on the market’s growth to continue producing positive returns and plan participants see the previous growth and they get in at the peak. 

7.  Do the paperwork yourself.  In my previous job, we had a dedicated team of HR people who filled out the forms for the employees, so that all they have to do is sign on the dotted line (though it’s a solid line nowadays).  If you do it yourself, you’ll have a much better understanding of the restrictions and anything else on the fine print.  If you run into trouble, pick up the phone and call the account provider.  They’d love to hear from you, after all it’s your money they’re after!

8.  Open as many accounts as you can.  If you fund a Roth in addition to your company plan (and your gross adjusted income is less than $167,000 for joint filers), go for it.  In fact, I know a wonderful company that can help do this for you.  It’s all compounding tax-deferred and that’s what you want.  The more the merrier is all I’m saying!

9.  Keep and review all statements.  Keep statements in a folder.  See how they’re doing once a year, although you’ll get one per account every quarter.  Also keep in mind that you can deduct the custodial fees if you itemize on your taxes. 

10.  Keep contributing until you die!  Okay, maybe not to that extreme, but as long as you’ve got your company matching, you’ve got free money rolling in.  It’s so easy to forget about that Roth or conventional IRA once you set it up.  If the $5,000 (or $6,000 if you’re over 50 years old) is too much at one time, break it up into smaller portions; that’s $416.66 a month.

Fostering Personal Relationships Online To Improve Business Success

In business (as in life, too) when you make a personal contact with people, it makes it much more difficult for them to ignore you, or more importantly, treat you badly. Wherever possible in life, personalize your relationships.  Many (if not all) of my real life friends are on Facebook.  And why not?  It’s convenient, centralized and most of all, easy!  They have yet to do any empirical research on the long-term effects of Facebook, but my feeling is, it does not facilitate honest, personal relationships with all of those people on your list of friends.  I’ve read somewhere and don’t quote me on this, but the human mind can only handle up to 50 or so friends, the rest are just strangers.   While you may have shared a response to someone’s Status Update, or pressed the “Like” button on a discussion among your social network, the vast majority of the interactions on Facebook is analogous to making eye contact with strangers on an elevator!

Now, I know that’s harsh, especially if you’re the one with over 1000 “friends” on Facebook!  I’m simply stating a point, and that is, any relationship you can make more personal improves your chances of success.   Whether that’s on Facebook, LinkedIn, or, dare I say it, Myspace, the connections you make have intrinsic and market value.  You may not do business with the vast majority of your connections due to a variety of reasons, but the real value is in grassroots marketing.  Your direct connection may not have a need your products or services right now, but they may know someone who does. 

I can only speak for myself and the Financial Services industry when doing business with someone online.  If you do a Google search, you’ll find that this industry is saturated with potential Financial Professionals in your area and deciding which one to go hire can be a daunting task.   So, try to do business with someone who has a classic type A, obsessive-compulsive personality.  These people need to be adored (or at least needed).  Because of this, they tend to kill you with personal service and attention.  They really want your portfolio to work-because of their ego, not yours. 

And since what you really want is not some hobo who makes a killing from selling you commission-based mutual funds but a strategy to set you free financially, here are some questions to ask anyone who presumes to handle your money. 

• Do you know anything about history, art, or literature?  It is my personal prejudice that anyone who watches my money should know a lot about the past, about human nature.  Good money management is more about understanding emotion that it is about quantitative analysis.  Your money manager should be working with both sides of his or her brain.
• What is your philosophy of investing?  Make sure that whoever is going to watch your nest egg can articulate what he or she believes in-in simple, easy language.  If you cannot explain what your broker or investment advisor believes in, you shouldn’t be investing with that person.  Also, personal money managers should have their investing philosophy in plain sight (business cards, front page of their website, etc…).
• Do you own stock yourself?  (You’d be amazed how many financial consultants own no securities themselves).  Ask what the broker or investment advisor currently owns and what he or she has learned from the successes and failures.  If they haven’t failed, they haven’t tried, so steer clear from them.

Back-testing Annual Stock Predictions

It’s always fascinating to me when major magazine publications such as Money or Forbes issue their annual “Investor’s Guide” in the beginning of the year.  Assuming that most investors rebalance their basket of stocks around the holiday season, let’s take a look at the predictions from Money Magazine for 2010 and see what investors would have made if they followed the advice. 

There are two things to note in this observation.  One is, at the time of this writing it is, October 6th, 2010.  Not even a full year has gone by since these picks were made, so I am merely observing the progress year-to-date.  And two, they cover nearly 200+ stocks, bonds and ETFs in the entire issue and to list them would be too tedious (for both reader and writer).  So, I am simply including those picks with the most “conviction” – that’s when they feature fund managers who have done exceptionally well in the past year.

 Top Picks From Top Pros

That’s the headline for the top five of 2009’s most successful funds.  Now, let’s see how they do this year thus far. 

Bruce Berkowitz/Fairholme (FAIRX):	Money Magazine	Current Price	Gain/(Loss) %	Total Return
Humana (HUM)	$42.04	$50.50	+20.01%
WellPoint (WLP)	$57.43	$55.11	-4.03%
Pfizer (PFE)	$18.32	$17.24	-5.89%
Forest Laboratories (FRX)	$31.19	$31.31	-0.38%
Total Return				+9.71%

David Herro/Oakmark International (OAKIX)	Money Magazine	Current Price	Gain/(Loss) %	Total Return
Toyota (TM)	$83.42	$71.25	-14.58%
Richemont (CFR.VX)	$32.35	$47.70	+47.44%
Publicis Groupe (PUBGY)	$40.21	*$49.70	+23.60%		*Split Adjusted
Total Return				+56.46%

Eric Ende/FPA Perennial (FPPFX)	Money Magazine	Current Price	Gain/(Loss) %	Total Return
Varian Medical Sys. (VAR)	$46.07	$61.81	+34.17%
Signet Jewelers (SIG)	$24.78	$32.62	+31.64%
Total Return				+65.81%

Diane Jaffee/TCW Dividend Focused (TGIGX)	Money Magazine	Current Price	Gain/(Loss) %	Total Return
Packaging Corp. (PKG)	$42.04	$50.50	+20.12%
J.P. Morgan (JPM)	$57.43	$55.11	-4.04%
Pfizer (PFE)	$18.32	$17.24	-5.89%
Total Return				+10.19%

John Rogers/Ariel Appreciation (CAAPX)	Money Magazine	Current Price	Gain/(Loss) %	Total Return
CB Richard Ellis (CBG)	$12.05	$18.03	+49.62%
CBS (CBS)	$13.81	$16.66	+20.63%
McCormick (MKC)	$18.32	$41.73	+127.78%
Total Return				+198.03%

Money Magazine’s Average Total Return: +68.04%  Vs.  S&P 500 Year-to-date:  +2.341%  (Wowza!)

Now, before you fire your stock broker to jump on these hot stocks, there are a few things you should know.  These stocks are coming off of exceptional bottoms from the 2007/2008 housing collapse and have not yet surpassed their peak prices (with the exception of one or two on the list).  While approximately 75% of the total stock market are currently in positive territory year-to-date, only a handful of them have reached back to their 2007 highs.  Obviously, this is only a small sample of those stocks and may not necessarily suit your needs.  But, aside from the technical details, a return of +68.04% in a year is extremely rare, if not impossible only because there are strong psychological forces at work that prevents from achieving that.

By the way, if you’re wondering, here are the figures for each funds’ five year annualized return.

Fairholme (FAIRX): +7.7%
Oakmark International (OAKIX): +6.6%
FPA Perennial (FPPFX): +2.1%
TCW Dividen Focused (TGIGX): -1.8%
Ariel Appreciation (CAAPX): +1.3%

Client Services and Financial Advisor Teams

Advisors who work in a team generally do better than those who work on their own.  Many financial services firms have over 50 percent of of their advisors in teams.  At CAM Trading, we too, work in a team environment as we feel that the only way to succeed for our clients is to work together at it.  The team structure works well in large part because of the productivity and client-service improvements they afford.

Advantages of Teams

Teams often specialize so that each team member can be an expert in something without needing to be an expert in everything.  This specialization can be in a particular practice area (trading, portfolio management, communications or some other element).

Clients can appreciate their advisor being part of a team because they feel that with a team, there is always someone there to take care of them who is familiar with their situation.  This gives clients a sense of community should something happen to their advisor.

Financial services can be a competitive business, and advisors can be very protective of their best practices and reluctant to share them with potential competitors, even within the same firm.  Sharing ideas among and getting input from all members of the team is invaluable.  As such CAM Trading and its team members are very careful with its proprietary trading models.